Bau Duc and the 'money-generating' problem: Vietnamese football at the threshold of the VFF Congress 2026-2030

There is one thing I have learned after 27 years sitting on the edge of the pitch — sometimes in Osaka, sometimes in Saigon: the words that change a football nation are rarely spoken in a post-match press room. They tend to surface before a congress. And just as the Vietnamese Football Federation (VFF) Congress for the 2026-2030 term approaches, Doan Nguyen Duc — the name the whole football community affectionately calls Bau Duc — said something that made many people pause: Vietnamese football needs to know how to "generate money."

I have watched similar arguments appear and then fade several times. But this time there is a difference. The speaker is not an official trying to keep a seat, nor a coach trying to shift blame. He is the chairman of Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HAGL), a man who once sat in the VFF Vice Chairman seat for finance, and who has poured his own money into youth football for nearly two decades. When a man like that talks about money, people are forced to listen — even if they do not like it.

The context in which that sentence landed is not meaningless. Vietnamese football has just gone through a notable cycle of achievement, from titles at the U23 level up to the senior national team. The generation raised by the HAGL Arsenal JMG academy — names like Cong Phuong, Xuan Truong, Tuan Anh, Van Toan, Van Thanh, Hong Duy — have become familiar faces of the national game. But just as the results are peaking, questions are being asked about the foundation beneath them.

I remember the 2026 World Cup, when I sat taking notes on every pressing action by Japan and confidently declared they would reach the quarterfinals. Japan then lost 2-3 to Belgium despite leading 2-0, and I realized I had only looked at the visible part. Since then, whenever I analyze, I force myself to look at the submerged part too. And the submerged part of Vietnamese football right now sits exactly where Bau Duc is pointing: the flow of money.

Ahead of the VFF Congress for the 2026-2030 term, the story is no longer a match. It is a debate about a model. Bau Duc says that professionalization and commercialization demand very large financial resources; that VFF needs businessmen who know how to create cash flow, know how to manage, and especially dare to spend. He also says plainly that the problem of Vietnamese football today cannot rely only on a few academies or a few patrons. And he closes with a line many will not want to hear: without money, do not talk about reaching the top.

That is a thesis about the determinism of resources. It sounds simple, but it touches the sore spot of a football nation still celebrating success.

I want to separate this story into two layers. The first is money. The second is power. And from my experience, the second layer is the one that truly decides.

On the money layer, Bau Duc's argument is right in direction but thin in magnitude. He says professional football needs large capital, and that is not wrong. But in his entire statement there is not a single concrete figure: no broadcasting revenue, no V.League club budget, no wage bill, no sponsorship number. That makes the argument strong qualitatively but unverifiable quantitatively. In other words, people know more money is needed, but nobody knows how much is needed or how much is missing.

This is the pivot most commentaries skip. A football nation that wants to commercialize must publish numbers. English football has club financial reports. Japanese football, where I live, has a considerable degree of budget transparency. In Vietnam, most figures remain behind closed doors. And when figures stay behind closed doors, public debate will always be driven by feeling rather than data.

Bau Duc talks about needing businessmen who can create cash flow. That is right. But I once wrote that the bridge-burner taught me to read the transfer market — where a promise is cheaper than a view. In football, promises about future cash flow are often far cheaper than real cash flow today. And a football congress before an election is the place where people most easily make such promises.

On the power layer, everything becomes clearer. When Bau Duc says VFF is a social-professional organization that needs businessmen who can create cash flow, he is proposing a change in governance model. He is not just talking about needing more money. He is talking about who should sit at the table and decide how money is used. This is a story about power, dressed as a story about money.

The interesting thing is that Bau Duc himself is the man who poured money into the very model he now seems to doubt. The HAGL Arsenal JMG academy, founded in 2026, combining football with culture and foreign languages, was one of the most systematic youth development projects Vietnam has ever had. The first cohort emerged around 2026 onward, and the "return" on that project took nearly a decade to appear: names that became pillars of the national team. It was a long-term investment, and by his own words, he had to pay the price for his investment decisions.

When a man who has paid the price for the model he pursued turns around to say that model cannot be the only foundation, that is not a contradiction. It is a conversion. In the moment I was left behind by colleagues, I learned to read people faster than to read tactics. And reading a man who has been through both peaks and financial depths, I see someone trying to turn his own experience into a warning for the whole system.

Looking at the financial picture, the structure of Vietnamese football has three fragile pillars. The first is broadcasting revenue — a source I assess as thin relative to ambition, but without figures to quantify. The second is commercial revenue — precisely the source Bau Duc says must rise. The third is dependence on patrons, individuals who spend personal money to keep clubs alive.

The third pillar is the riskiest. Because when a club depends on one person's wallet, the club's health is tied to that person's financial fate. Bau Duc himself is a living example. He has had ups and downs, and by his own words, has had to pay the price. That is not the story of one man. It is the story of an entire model.

This is where I feel the need to emphasize something hard to hear: Vietnamese football is placing World Cup ambition on top of a thin commercial base. That is a mismatch between goal and resource. The goal is to go to the World Cup or reach continental level. But the commercial base of the V.League does not match that goal. And in football, a mismatch between ambition and resource is always paid for by one of two things: stagnation, or collapse.

I was once confident enough to think pressing was invincible — right up until the opponent read its death point. Vietnamese football is now at a similar moment. The results look good. But good results can hide a structural death point. And that death point, by Bau Duc's own words, lies in a football nation depending on too few people.

The second point I consider important but rarely discussed: human resources. Bau Duc stresses that businessmen who invest their own money will have the motivation to find a suitable management model. That is the "skin in the game" argument. But hidden behind it is a deeper judgment: Vietnam's gap may be a management gap, not merely a money gap. If you pour money in without changing how it is managed, the money will flow somewhere else rather than into quality.

In 27 years of observing the industry, I have seen an almost constant rule: successful football nations are not the ones with the most money, but the ones that know how to turn money into a system. German football is not the richest in Europe, but it has a system. Japanese football does not spend like the Premier League, but it has structure. Money is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one.

And this is where I must say something fervent fans may not want to hear. The football hunger of that year made me realize: tactics are the easiest part to write. The hardest part is governance. And governance is what a football nation still celebrating success tends to postpone, because success creates the feeling that everything is fine.

I think Bau Duc is right that now is the time. Because a congress is a narrow window. If reform is not embedded into the structure at this moment, then after the congress the old machinery will re-establish itself, and everything returns to the way it was until the next congress. In football, such windows do not open often.

But I must also be honest about the other side. There are two big risks in this proposal.

The first risk is the conflict-of-interest problem. A man who is both a club chairman and a former finance leader of the federation, when he proposes a model for the federation's finances, will be read in two ways. The first is a well-meaning reformer. The second is someone trying to reshape the rules in his favor. Both readings have a basis, and I do not have enough information to conclude. What I can say is: any governance proposal coming from someone with related interests must be checked by transparency, not by personal reputation.

The second risk is the problem of individual dependence. This is the greatest paradox of the story. Bau Duc criticizes a model dependent on a few patrons. But he himself, as the spokesperson for reform, is an individual point of dependence. If reform only stands when one individual pushes it, then that reform has not been institutionalized. And a reform not institutionalized will vanish when that individual leaves.

That is why I think the real message of the story is not the money figure. It is the question of institution. How do you keep money from depending on a few people? How do you keep youth development from depending on a few academies? How do you keep decision-making power from depending on a few seats?

The third point I want to dissect is the international story. Bau Duc mentions that Vietnamese football needs a voice in organizations such as FIFA, AFC and AFF. This is an easily overlooked part, but in fact very important. In football, a seat on international committees is not just an honor. It is soft power. It influences the calendar, the allocation of tournament slots, and access to development programs and funding. A football nation with no voice at the international table will always be on the back foot.

But this is also where it is easy to fall into illusion. Having a seat does not mean having influence. Influence comes from capability, from preparation, and from a domestic football nation strong enough to command credibility. If the domestic foundation is still weak, then an international seat is just a nice chair in a room where your voice carries no weight.

Back to the central question. Bau Duc says Vietnamese football needs to know how to "generate money." I think this statement is right, but not enough. Because football does not just need to generate money. It needs to know how to keep money, allocate money, and turn money into a system. And that requires something much harder: transparency.

A football nation that wants to commercialize must publish figures. A football nation that wants to attract business must prove that money is used in the right place. A football nation that wants to reach the top must prove it does not depend on a few individuals. Without transparency, every call for money is just a call for trust. And trust, in football, is the most expensive thing and the easiest to lose.

There is one thing I always remind myself when writing about Asian football. When I was burned, I did not hunt for the burner. I went looking for a new fire — that is how football people survive. Vietnamese football is the same now. The question is not who is right or wrong in the debate before the congress. The question is which new fire this football nation will find, or whether it will keep burning what is left of the old model.

For me, the most notable signal is not the phrase "generate money." It is the statement that Vietnamese football cannot rely only on a few academies or a few patrons. This is a rare admission from a patron himself. A man who built one of Vietnam's best academies is now saying that academy cannot be the only foundation. That is not a denial of his own effort. It is an admission that a good system is better than a good individual.

And if read carefully, Bau Duc's message is actually not "give us the money." It is "build a system strong enough that money is no longer the story of a few people." That is a hard message for those used to the old model, but it is the right message for the moment.

I was once confident that pressing would be invincible, until I saw it fall on the biggest stage. Vietnamese football may now be at the peak of a cycle of success, but every cycle has an end. The question is whether, when that end comes, this football nation will stand on a system, or on the memory of a few individuals.

If I had to place a bet on the near future, I would bet on the scenario of incremental reform: more corporate involvement, partial modernization of management, and limited gains in international presence. The optimistic scenario — a congress adopting a clear commercialization platform and Vietnamese football taking a real seat in continental structures — is the one I want to see, but I do not have enough basis to be sure. And the worst scenario is not some punishment. It is stagnation. And stagnation, in football, needs no announcement. It only needs time.

What I want to leave here is not a conclusion, but a question. When the VFF Congress for the 2026-2030 term closes, will Vietnamese football have a few more patrons at the table, or will it have a new system so that no one has to sit at the table alone anymore? The answer to that question will decide whether the World Cup still lies in the players' feet, or begins to lie in the machinery behind them.