AFC's New Competition and Vietnam Football's Crossroads: When Empty Seats No Longer Hold Memories

Autumn 2028. My Dinh Stadium will no longer have those nights filled only with the sound of cicadas as I once witnessed during the pandemic. But it will also no longer have friendly matches against familiar Southeast Asian opponents, where the stands were packed with red flags with yellow stars and chants of players' names like a ritual. Instead, according to the latest proposal from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), scheduled for presentation to member federations on October 6, Vietnamese football will enter an entirely different era: the Asian Nations League. I still remember that afternoon in 2026, sitting in the press room in Moscow watching Kylian Mbappé at 19 tear through Argentina's defense with the speed of a new generation. I wrote then that youth is not just speed, but the way one chooses to charge forward. Seven years later, I realize that Asian football is also standing before a similar choice: charge forward or cling to the comfort zone of Southeast Asian derbies. AFC's proposal, according to ESPN, is not just a new tournament. It is a comprehensive restructuring. The Asian Nations League will be held biennially, divided into three tiers based on FIFA rankings: Tier 1 with the top 18 teams, Tier 2 with the next 18, and Tier 3 with the remaining 11 split into three groups. What is most notable is that this tournament will be directly integrated into World Cup and Asian Cup qualifying, rather than existing as a standalone event. AFC explains that such integration solves two problems at once: limited international match days and organizational costs. According to the proposed roadmap, a trial phase will take place in 2028-2029, before the official launch from 2030. To accommodate the new calendar, AFC also proposes postponing the Asian Cup from 2031 to 2032. The tiering mechanism will be based on results from the 2028-2029 transition period combined with FIFA rankings, with promotion, relegation, and play-off mechanisms to ensure competitiveness. Under this model, each World Cup cycle, a Tier 1 team will play 12 matches (6 home, 6 away). For Vietnamese football, the most important information lies in the numbers: Vietnam currently ranks 99th in FIFA and 17th in Asia. AFC's Tier 1 is capped at 18 teams. This means Vietnam stands right on the boundary of the top tier, only one place above the next group. A small shift in match results could push us down to Tier 2, where the World Cup door is much narrower. What truly awaits Vietnamese football? Look at the prize structure and qualification pathway. If placed in Tier 1, Vietnam will have the opportunity to directly secure a World Cup spot by finishing in the top 6 of this tier. Additionally, the top 8 teams will enter the knockout stage to determine the Asian Nations League champion. But the reward comes with pressure: 12 matches against top continental opponents like Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia, Saudi Arabia over a two-year cycle. That is a dense schedule requiring squad depth and rotation capabilities that Vietnamese football has never faced at the national team level. If relegated to Tier 2, the Asian Cup door widens as the top 6 of Tier 2 also earn tickets, but the path to the World Cup becomes narrow and dependent on risky play-offs. This is an asymmetry of opportunity that any strategic planner must confront directly. The most notable point in this proposal, and also the one that Vietnamese football observers need to pay special attention to, is AFC's decision to eliminate regional grouping. Previously, Southeast Asian grouping often helped Vietnam face familiar opponents like Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines. These matches were not only easier for points but also provided psychological advantages and ranking stability. Removing regional grouping means Vietnam no longer has a safe 'buffer zone' to accumulate points, but must face opponents from across the continent right from the group stage. From another perspective, removing regional grouping also opens unlimited opportunities. If strong enough, Vietnam can climb higher in the Asian rankings without being limited by a regional 'ceiling.' But to achieve this, we need a completely different foundation in physicality, tactics, and mentality. In this context, I remember the 'Green Balcony' project I conducted in 2026, when the pandemic turned Chengdu's stadiums into empty stands. I called 50 veteran fans, recorded 300 minutes of their memories of afternoons waiting for the ball to roll. We called it nostalgia, but it was actually an invisible form of fandom. And I wonder: when Vietnamese football enters the Nations League era, will memories of Southeast Asian derbies still have a place? The empty seats at My Dinh in matches against Thailand, Indonesia - will they still echo with songs, or become forgotten memories as fans must familiarize themselves with unfamiliar opponents from West Asia, Central Asia? There is a rarely mentioned truth: Vietnamese football's success over the past decade was largely built on the foundation of regional tournaments. AFF Cup championships, dramatic SEA Games matches, or World Cup qualifying campaigns against Southeast Asian opponents - that is where Vietnamese fans learned to believe in the national team. But the Asian Nations League will completely change that ecosystem. When matches against Thailand, Indonesia become less important in terms of points, will the appeal of the AFF Cup diminish? And will VFF have enough resources to maintain competitiveness in both arenas? This leads to an interesting paradox: while AFC is trying to create a unified and more rigorous competition system, regional tournaments like the AFF Cup still play an important role in maintaining fan interest and sponsorship revenue. Balancing these two objectives will be a difficult equation for VFF in the years to come. From a tactical perspective, facing top Asian teams more frequently will impose new demands on playing style. Vietnamese football over the years has successfully built an image of a team with medium pressing, quick transitions, and exploiting opponent mistakes. But when facing Japan, South Korea, or Iran - teams with superior ball control and abundant physicality - this model will be severely tested. We saw this at the 2026 Asian Cup, when Vietnam lost to opponents superior in every aspect. However, there is a bright spot that deserves fair recognition. Facing top opponents more frequently will create motivation for Vietnamese football to comprehensively upgrade: from youth development, physicality, to tactics and national team management. Looking at Japan and South Korea - countries that have succeeded in building competitive Asian football - they all went through a similar process. At 69, I have learned that the world still runs faster than me, but nostalgia always stands still. And perhaps, Vietnamese football also needs to learn to accept that to progress, sometimes one must let go of the familiar. The question is: will VFF and strategic planners have sufficient vision to prepare for the 2028-2029 transition period? Because under the new mechanism, results during this period will play a crucial role in determining Vietnam's tier when the Nations League officially launches in 2030. If we lose Tier 1 status, climbing back will be extremely difficult once the tournament has settled into its rhythm. I once wrote that the pitch never betrays anyone, only that people often forget it also knows how to embrace. The Asian Nations League could be a broader embrace - where Vietnamese football faces greater challenges, is seen more clearly in its position on the Asian football map. But it could also be a harsh embrace if we enter without careful preparation. Fans don't die, they just move to empty seats to watch the pitch longer. And perhaps, in the Nations League era, Vietnamese fans will need to learn to view their national team through a new lens - where every match is not just a game, but a step in the journey of asserting position. That journey will not be easy, but as I wrote years ago: youth is not just speed, but the way one chooses to charge forward.