Chase Kendall Chooses Cincinnati: A Strategic Move by a Rising Distance Swimmer

When a high school swimmer improves 20 seconds in the 1650-yard freestyle in just one season, the experts start to take notice. Chase Kendall, a senior at Florida, has just announced his verbal commitment to the University of Cincinnati, set to begin competing in fall 2027. His time of 15:37.60 at Winter Juniors East is not the pinnacle of American high school swimming, but it is enough to say one thing: Kendall is on the right development trajectory. The context of this event lies in the US college recruiting system, where young athletes often make non-binding commitments before signing a National Letter of Intent (NLI) in November of their senior year. Cincinnati, a Division I program in the Mid-Major group within the Big 12 Conference, is not a powerhouse like Texas or California, but this very fact creates a clear opportunity for a swimmer with potential like Kendall. Looking at the data, Kendall's improvement during the 2026-26 season is a notable highlight. He dropped over 20 seconds in the 1650-yard freestyle, nearly 10 seconds in the 500-yard, and about 4.5 seconds in the 200-yard. At the Florida Senior Championships in March, he placed fourth in the 500-yard with a time of 4:32.57 (4:29.79 in prelims), and fourth in the 1650-yard with 15:38.06. These numbers indicate a significant expansion of his aerobic base, along with better pace management across distances. Interestingly, the improvement in the 500-yard (about 2 seconds per 100 yards) is proportionally larger than in the 1650-yard (about 1.2 seconds per 100 yards). This could reflect an increased stroke rate capability at middle distances, or a better front-half pacing strategy. Additionally, his 400 IM time of 4:01.02 in prelims shows technical versatility across all four strokes, a positive signal for his potential contribution to Cincinnati's relay teams in the future. However, these numbers must be placed in a competitive context. In the 1650-yard, Kendall's 15:37.60 ranks roughly between 25th and 50th among the nation's top junior swimmers. He is not a top-tier blue-chip recruit, but a solid mid-tier swimmer. At the Big 12, where Cincinnati finished 6th out of 7 at the 2026 conference championships, his 1650-yard time would score points, while his 500-yard (4:29.79) is only about 2.2 seconds off the scoring threshold of 4:27.57. With two full seasons of training before his first conference meet in February 2028, Kendall can realistically close this gap. A counter-intuitive angle here is that choosing a Mid-Major program instead of pursuing a walk-on opportunity at a Power 5 school could be a smart decision. Rather than being buried in the deep roster of a powerhouse, Kendall will have the chance to compete from his freshman year, gaining experience and developing in a less pressured environment. Moreover, Texas's departure from the Big 12 (moving to the SEC from the 2026-25 season) has reshaped the conference's dynamics, opening opportunities for programs like Cincinnati to rise. However, caution is also needed. A large improvement in one season may not be sustainable when stepping up to the college level, where training intensity and competition are much higher. Additionally, a verbal commitment is non-binding, and Kendall could still change his mind before signing the NLI in November 2026. But with his current trajectory, he is showing tactical and physical maturity, which any college program values. Chase Kendall's story is not just a recruiting commitment. It is a testament to how data and patience can guide a young athlete to the right place. When football stops moving, but 2,400 matches still whisper in my spreadsheet, I realize that in swimming too, every time drop is a data point, but not every data point is a step forward. For Kendall, the numbers are saying the right thing.