Between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv: Why EuroLeague Still Can't Bring Israeli Basketball Home

"Empty stadiums, but never before have we had so much clean data. The pandemic was a toxic gift." I wrote that in mid-2026, when the Bundesliga returned without fans and home advantage dropped by as much as 38%. Four years later, another version of that natural experiment is still playing out in the EuroLeague – only this time it isn't caused by a virus. Maccabi Tel Aviv, along with two other Israeli clubs, still cannot return home. During a meeting in Abu Dhabi, club representatives met with EuroLeague CEO Chus Bueno and competitions director Diego Gijón. The result: nothing has changed. Only a promise – an evaluation visit to Israel within the next two weeks.

Three Israeli clubs – including Maccabi Tel Aviv, the most storied basketball club in the country – have been living in a state of sporting exile for multiple seasons. They are forced to play home games abroad because of the situation in the Middle East and the international conflict. In a statement released on Saturday, Maccabi confirmed that the meeting with EuroLeague's two top officials was part of an effort to find a solution that brings elite basketball back to Tel Aviv. Club president Shimon Mizrahi and sporting director Claudio Coldebella were directly involved.

For me, this story is not merely a behind-the-scenes news brief. It is one of the rarest datasets on the value of home court – something the sports betting industry has been pricing for decades but rarely has the opportunity to verify. "I don't watch the game. I watch the crowd betting on the game." When a team is forced to leave its arena because of war, every pricing model gets pushed into a turbulence zone.

Data from the 2026–18 season, which I used for an econometrics assignment, showed that expected goals could predict Burnley's fate better than any expert analysis. In basketball, it is the same. Home advantage is not a constant. Look at what happened during the pandemic: when arenas were empty, home teams averaged just 1.08 points per match compared to 1.32 before. Every bookmaker that was slow to adjust its home advantage adjustment was punished by the market. That was one of the findings that got me into the betting analytics industry.

Now let's run the numbers for Maccabi Tel Aviv. They lose home conditions, home crowds, and daily rhythm. They travel longer distances and face higher injury risk because of a congested schedule. Yet bookmakers still draw lines based on old models: the stronger team is still favored, with almost no correction factor for a prolonged neutral-site reality. When the home team is barely a home team anymore, over/under, handicap, and moneyline numbers all become mispriced.

"Each isolated number is a lie. Only when you place them side by side does the truth begin to vomit itself out." Three Israeli teams in the EuroLeague are not isolated numbers. They are a cluster of data repeating season after season – stable enough that the EuroLeague has accepted it as part of the order. And that stability creates a blind spot for both the league and the market: when an anomaly lasts long enough, people forget it is an anomaly.

Look at the structure of the meeting: Abu Dhabi – not Tel Aviv, not Madrid, not Berlin – was where the meeting took place. That shows the Middle East is not just the problem; it is also part of the solution. The UAE has become an international sports hub, and the fact that the EuroLeague held strategic talks there is a signal that cannot be ignored. If the security situation remains deadlocked, Abu Dhabi could easily become what Maccabi Tel Aviv calls "home."

The popular view is that every team wants to return to its own arena as soon as possible. But I am not sure that is true for everyone running the system. For the EuroLeague, the fact that three Israeli teams play away from home may be an image problem, but operationally, the neutral-site model has been tested over multiple seasons. It doesn't break the schedule, it doesn't threaten broadcast revenue, and it doesn't collapse ratings. The deliberate pace of the league's actions – meeting, evaluating, but setting no deadline – suggests nobody truly sees this as a crisis.

The same goes for the betting public. People don't pay to predict correctly. They pay to believe they are predicting correctly. The disappearance of home advantage is a measurable variable, but it is ignored because it doesn't create a shock large enough. When the home team wins less than expected, people blame form, injuries, or luck. They don't ask whether Maccabi Tel Aviv's "home court" in Belgrade or Abu Dhabi is really worth the same as the one in Tel Aviv. They don't realize that question was already answered in the summer of 2026.

The evaluation visit by Chus Bueno and Diego Gijón to Israel in the next two weeks will not bring a definitive answer. But it will shape how the EuroLeague writes rules for a world where basketball can no longer take regional security for granted. If the league chooses to formalize the long-term neutral-site model, it won't just be Israel's story – it will be the blueprint for any league facing war, pandemic, or climate change. The question is no longer when Maccabi Tel Aviv gets to come home. The question is whether the concept of "home court" still means anything in an era when a single crisis can push a team out of its own borders.