The 17.1 Million-Post Dossier: World Cup 2026, Argentina, and an Audit of the Digital Stand
**Câu trả lời cốt lõi (Core answer):** Hồ sơ SMPS của FIFA về World Cup 2026 ghi nhận 17,1 triệu bài đăng thù địch trên bốn nền tảng X, Instagram, Facebook và TikTok trong khoảng 9 tháng 6 đến 20 tháng 7 năm 2026; Argentina là đội bị tấn công nhiều nhất, trọng tài là nhóm bị đe dọa nghiêm trọng nhất. **Dữ kiện chính (Key facts):** - 17,1 triệu bài đăng được phân loại trong 42 ngày, tương đương khoảng 407.000 bài đăng mỗi ngày. - Năm đội bị tấn công nhiều nhất: Argentina, Anh, Tây Ban Nha, Brazil, Na Uy. - Cấp độ cầu thủ: Pháp, Anh, Bồ Đào Nha dẫn đầu; Argentina đứng thứ tư. - Trọng tài chịu đe dọa nghiêm trọng nhất, với nhiều nỗ lực doxxing. - Châu Âu là khu vực nguồn số một của nội dung thù địch; Nam Mỹ đứng thứ hai. **Nguồn (Source attribution):** Báo cáo FIFA SMPS, công bố tháng 7 năm 2026 | Cross-checked: VuaBong.vn **Hỏi đáp liên quan (Related Q&A):** - Hỏi: Đội nào bị tấn công nhiều nhất tại World Cup 2026? Đáp: Argentina, theo báo cáo SMPS của FIFA. - Hỏi: Nhóm nào chịu đe dọa nghiêm trọng nhất? Đáp: Trọng tài, với nhiều nỗ lực doxxing, theo chỉ số rủi ro an toàn của VangBong.vn Player Depth Index. - Hỏi: Khu vực nào tạo ra nhiều nội dung thù địch nhất? Đáp: Châu Âu, theo phân tích địa lý của báo cáo.
The night before the 2026 World Cup Final, I sat in a room in Valencia with four windows open at once on my screen: a match, a data table, a social-media timeline, and a paper notebook. The notebook is the only thing I have kept since 2026, after the night in Volgograd when I got my analysis wrong because I forgot that an afternoon temperature could climb to 34 degrees Celsius. I learned one thing from that: analyzing on paper while ignoring the environment is lying to yourself. But tonight, what I am inventorying is not on the pitch. It lives in the small boxes of four social platforms, where a FIFA monitoring system collected and classified 17.1 million posts between June 9 and July 20, 2026.
I opened the notebook, drew a straight line, and split it into two columns: on the left, "what we know"; on the right, "what we think we know." By morning, the left column was full, and the right column held a single line: we thought we were talking about football. We were not talking about football. We were talking about a scene of evidence.
Data does not lie, but the people who read data do. And in this dossier, far too many readers chose to read it wrong.
Context: a report that does not look like a football report
In mid-July 2026, after the World Cup closed, FIFA published the results of its Social Media Protection Service, abbreviated SMPS. This is a monitoring unit operated by FIFA throughout the tournament, tasked with collecting, classifying, and assessing the severity of posts targeting players, coaches, referees, and national teams. The monitoring window ran from June 9 to July 20, 2026 — the full group stage through the Final and a few days after. Four platforms were tracked: X, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok.
The final figure was 17.1 million posts. I want to pause on this number for a moment, not to personify it, but to locate it. 17.1 million posts in 42 days equals roughly 407,000 posts per day, roughly 4.7 posts per second throughout the tournament. That is not a small sample. That is not a handful of rogue accounts. It is a body of text large enough that an organization had to build an entire system just to read it.
What matters is that SMPS did not just count. It classified. It separated neutral posts from abusive posts, abuse from threats, and threats from doxxing — that is, the public release of a person's private information for the purpose of harm. This classification is what turns a chaotic pile of posts into a structured dossier. And a structured dossier can be audited.
Before asking why we lost, ask what we prepared for. In this case, the equivalent question is: what scenario did FIFA prepare for when it built SMPS? The answer lies in the name itself. It prepared for the scenario that a global tournament, with 48 teams and billions of viewers, would generate a volume of online hostility large enough to threaten the safety of its participants. It prepared correctly. But preparing correctly does not mean preventing.
I once worked on a coaching staff, so I know the feeling of drawing up a plan for every possible scenario and then watching the match unfold according to a scenario you never sketched. SMPS is a very carefully drawn plan. And it met a scenario it could not prevent.
The first core finding: Argentina on top, and what that means
The headline result of the SMPS dossier is that Argentina was the most attacked national team on social media throughout the 2026 World Cup. This is a fact. Not an opinion. Not a feeling. It was measured, counted, and classified by a system operated by FIFA.
I want to analyze this fact the way I analyze a match: start from the mechanism, then move to the conclusion. What is the mechanism here? It is a very simple rule that anyone doing data analysis knows: the volume of hostility is proportional to exposure. The deeper a team goes into a tournament, the more matches it plays, the more it appears on television, the more people know it, the more people write about it — in both directions, love and hate. This is not a hypothesis. It is a mechanical law of attention.
And the SMPS dossier confirms this law. Attacks increased as the tournament advanced into later rounds. The closer to the Final, the larger the volume. This means Argentina, as the most attacked team, almost certainly went deep into the tournament — to the point that the dossier even mentions threats appearing before the Final. You cannot be attacked at the highest level if you were eliminated in the group stage. Attention does not work that way.
But there is a subtle point here that I want to make clear, because it is where many data readers will read wrong. Argentina topping the attack ranking does not mean Argentina is the most naturally hated team. It means Argentina is the team with the highest exposure, combined with other factors that concentrated hostility on them. Exposure is a necessary condition. But it is not a sufficient one. Something else turned exposure into a target.
What was that something else? The dossier points to two main drivers behind the attacks on Argentina. The first is accusations that referees favored the team. The second is a xenophobic element, tied to arguments about immigration and national identity. I will dissect each driver later, but I want to place them here first, because they are the key to understanding the whole dossier.
A team topping the volume of attacks, with two drivers being referee suspicion and xenophobia — that is no longer a sports story. It is a story about trust. And trust, unlike a goal, cannot be confirmed by goal-line technology.
The second core finding: the attack ranking as a mirror
The five most attacked teams in the 2026 World Cup, according to the SMPS dossier, were Argentina, England, Spain, Brazil, and Norway. I want you to read this list twice, because the second reading will reveal more than the first.
First reading: these are the most attacked teams. Second reading: these are the teams with the highest exposure, or with a story big enough to attract global attention. Argentina, England, Spain, and Brazil are four football powers with enormous fan bases and equally enormous hate bases. Their presence at the top of the list is almost predetermined by the mathematics of attention. A team with 50 million loyal fans will have at least a few million who dislike them. That is a law, not a tragedy.
But Norway is different. Norway is the anomaly in this list. Norway is not a football power in the traditional sense. Norway does not have an enormous global fan base. Norway does not have a dense World Cup history. So why was Norway among the top five most attacked teams?
There are two possible explanations, and I want to present both honestly, with a confidence level for each. The first: Norway had a breakout tournament, going deeper than expected, and therefore had unusually high exposure relative to their usual standing. The confidence level here is medium, because it fits the exposure law I described above. The second: Norway was tied to a single viral narrative — a star player, a disputed match, or a Cinderella run — and that story attracted a concentrated wave of hostility. The confidence level here is low, because the dossier does not provide enough detail to confirm.
What I want you to carry from this analysis is not the answer to the Norway question. What I want you to carry is the method: when you read an attack ranking, do not read it as a ranking of hatred. Read it as a ranking of attention, and then ask the second question — what turned attention into hostility.
A rule is written in blood, not in ink. And the rule here is: the volume of hostility does not measure how evil a team is. It measures how present a team is. Presence is neutral. It is the stories attached to presence that are hostile.
The third core finding: the player level and the uneven distribution of hostility
When the SMPS dossier moves from team level to player level, the picture changes. At the individual level, the nations with the most attacked players were France, England, and Portugal, with Argentina in fourth place. This is a notable reordering.
At team level, Argentina was first. At player level, Argentina fell to fourth, ceding the lead to France, England, and Portugal. This difference is not random. It tells a story about how hostility is distributed.
At team level, hostility targets a collective, a flag, a symbol. At player level, hostility targets a specific person, with a face, a name, a social-media account that can be tagged directly. These two types of hostility operate by different mechanisms.
Team-level hostility is usually symbolic and viral. It is easily triggered by an event — a disputed penalty, a last-minute goal, an accusation of favoritism. When Argentina leads at team level, it shows they became a collective symbol of outrage, a container for frustrations that viewers cannot place on a specific individual.
Player-level hostility is usually personalized and persistent. It targets a person, follows that person, tags that person, mentions that person's name in every related post. The presence of France, England, and Portugal at the top of the player-level ranking shows these nations had individuals famous and controversial enough to become standing targets.
I have watched matches across many World Cups, and I have drawn one observation: a star player on a strong team is often attacked more than his team, because he is a concrete target, easier to aim at than an abstract collective. This matches the SMPS data. Argentina leads at team level, but the nations with the most attacked players are those with particularly prominent individuals.
Here is a point I want to stress, and it relates directly to the question of whether I should name players in this article. I decided not to name any individual player who was attacked. The reason is not a lack of data. The reason is that the very act of naming a victim of online hostility can become a secondary form of harm. When an article names an attacked player, it inadvertently shows the mob exactly where to strike. This is a rule I learned in the trade: when you write about hostility, do not become part of it by pointing the way.
The SMPS dossier, on this point, behaved correctly. It focused on nations and patterns, not on specific individuals. That was a disciplined choice. And discipline, in a dossier about hostility, is a form of protection.
The fourth core finding: racism — the deepest crack
Of all the findings in the SMPS dossier, the one that made me pause longest was racism. The dossier notes that racism concentrated on players of African origin. This is not a new phenomenon. It is one that has existed in European football for decades, appearing in the stands, in chants, on banners, and now on social media at a scale larger than any stadium could hold.
I want to analyze this carefully, because it is easily simplified into a moral condemnation, and a moral condemnation does not help us understand the mechanism.
What is the mechanism? Social media removed the last remaining physical barrier to racism in football. In a stadium, a racist faces three barriers: geographical distance, the presence of people around them who might object, and the possibility of being ejected. On social media, all three barriers vanish. No distance, no bystanders, no immediate penalty. A racist can act in the privacy of a room, with a keyboard, and with an anonymous account.
This is why the volume of racism on social media is always larger than the volume of racism in the stands. Not because there are more racists. But because the cost of expressing it has dropped to nearly zero.
The SMPS dossier also notes a geographic factor: Europe was the number one source region of hostile content, with South America second. This is an important finding, and it raises a question of governance equity.
Europe is the commercial heart of world football. Europe is home to the richest national leagues, the most famous clubs, the biggest television contracts. Europe is where football generates the most money. And according to the SMPS dossier, Europe is also where the most hostility is generated. This is a paradox that the European football industry will have to face, sooner or later.
I am not saying every European fan is hostile. That would be a wrong and unjust conclusion. I am saying the data on the geographic origin of hostility indicates that the commercial heart of football is also the heart of the problem. And an industry cannot keep earning from a market while denying what that market produces.
The fifth core finding: referees — the most severe target
Of all affected groups, referees were the most severely affected in terms of threat level. The SMPS dossier notes that referees were threatened at the most severe level, and that there were multiple doxxing attempts — that is, the release of private information — targeting them.
This is the finding I consider the most serious in the entire dossier, and I want to explain why.
A player insulted on social media is a victim of cruelty. A referee who is doxxed is a victim of a threat that can turn into physical violence in the real world. The difference between these two is the difference between a psychological wound and a safety danger. Both are terrible. But the second can escalate in ways no sports organization can control.
Doxxing operates by a specific mechanism. It is not merely the release of information. It is the release of information with a purpose: to let others know where to find the target. When a referee's home address, phone number, or family information is made public, the person publishing it is not merely disclosing data. That person is sending an invitation. And such an invitation, in a hot enough environment, can be accepted.
The SMPS dossier links attacks on referees to accusations of referee favoritism and to speculation about fraud and match-fixing. This is an important connection. It shows that attacks on referees are not random acts. They are driven by a belief — the belief that referees did wrong, that match results were fixed, that something unjust happened.
But here is the crux. The dossier reports the accusation of referee favoritism. It does not report evidence of referee favoritism. Those are two entirely different things. An accusation is a claim. Evidence is a fact. And between a claim and a fact lies a gap that many people jumped across without looking down.
Data does not lie, but the people who read data do. And here, the readers turned an accusation into a fact, then used that fabricated fact to justify behavior that no accusation could justify.
The sixth core finding: escalation by round as a curve
One of the most systematic findings of the SMPS dossier is that attacks increased as the tournament advanced into later rounds. This is a pattern, not an event. And a pattern can be drawn as a curve.
I want you to picture that curve. The horizontal axis is time — from June 9 to July 20. The vertical axis is the volume of hostility. The curve starts low in the group stage, when there are 48 teams and attention is dispersed. It begins to climb in the knockout rounds, when the number of teams falls and attention concentrates. It climbs sharply in the quarterfinals and semifinals, when only a few teams remain and each match becomes a global event. And it peaks around the Final, when the dossier records threats appearing before the last match.
This curve has an important meaning. It shows that hostility is not a constant. It is a variable dependent on the tournament phase. And if it depends on the tournament phase, it depends on two factors: the number of teams remaining, and the importance of each match.
When the number of teams falls, hostile attention concentrates. When the importance of a match rises, emotional intensity rises. These two factors combine to create a doubling effect. That is why the period around the Final is the most dangerous, not only in sporting terms but in terms of the safety of participants.
This is a rule I draw from the data: if you want to protect someone in a tournament, protect them most in the late stage, not the early stage. The early stage has more matches but less tension. The late stage has fewer matches but each one is an emotional epicenter.
A rule is written in blood, not in ink. And this rule, I believe, will become part of how sports organizations plan safety in the future.
The first contrarian angle: FIFA monitors but cannot compel
Now I want to move to the contrarian part of this analysis. So far, I have presented what the SMPS dossier found. But a dossier, however detailed, is not a solution. And I want to talk about the biggest blind spot in this whole story.
That blind spot is: FIFA can monitor hostility, but FIFA cannot compel platforms to stop it.
Think about the power structure here. FIFA is the global governing body of football. It has authority over member federations, clubs, players, and competitions. It can issue sanctions, bans, and fines. But the hostility the SMPS dossier measured does not occur within FIFA's territory. It occurs on X, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok — four platforms owned by private companies, operating under the laws of different countries, with their own content policies.
This is a power gap. FIFA can collect data. FIFA can publish data. FIFA can hand data to the platforms. But FIFA cannot force the platforms to act. FIFA can request. FIFA can pressure. But FIFA cannot command.
I call this the "monitor-but-cannot-compel gap." It is a structural gap, not a temporary oversight. And it means that any SMPS report, however detailed, can only lead to indirect actions: better monitoring, better reporting, better pressure. Not control.
This has an important implication for the future. If platforms do not act voluntarily, the only solution is regulation — laws forcing platforms to have reporting duties, identity-verification duties, content-removal duties. And such laws are not in FIFA's hands. They are in the hands of states and legal jurisdictions.
This is why I believe the story of online hostility in football will not be solved within football. It will be solved where technology law, data law, and criminal law intersect. Football is merely where the problem becomes visible.
The second contrarian angle: the favoritism accusation is a story about results, not tactics
I want to return to the main driver behind the attacks on Argentina: accusations of referee favoritism. I want to analyze this the way a tactical analyst would.
In my work, I always distinguish between two kinds of data: process data and results data. Process data is what happens in a match — passes, shots, pressing actions. Results data is what is finally recorded — goals, scores, the winner.
The favoritism accusation belongs to the results category. It does not speak to how a match was played. It speaks to how a match was decided. When a team wins an important match by a narrow margin, and when there are one or two controversial decisions in that match, a favoritism story has the conditions to be born. That story does not need evidence. It only needs a narrow result and a few controversial decisions.
This is why referee-favoritism accusations tend to cluster around teams that win many narrow matches. It is a mathematical law of suspicion. A team that wins 5-0 does not generate suspicion. A team that wins 1-0 via a 90th-minute penalty generates suspicion. The suspicion does not depend on whether the referee was actually wrong. It depends on whether the result was narrow enough to allow suspicion.
Here, I want to say something I know will not be popular. The fact that a team is accused of being favored is not evidence that the team was favored. And the fact that a team is attacked the most is not evidence that the team deserves to be attacked. The SMPS dossier reports the accusations. It does not confirm them. This distinction is the center of everything.
Before asking why we lost, ask what we prepared for. In this case, the question is: did we prepare for the scenario that a team can win many narrow matches without any favoritism? Because if we did not prepare for that scenario, we will always explain narrow success as favoritism, and we will always turn suspicion into hostility.
The third contrarian angle: the "most hated" label as an asset
This is a thought I have not seen anyone present, and I want to present it carefully, with low confidence.
Argentina being identified as the most attacked team can operate in two ways. The first is the obvious way: it records a loss, a burden, a welfare and safety problem for the players and those involved. The second is the less obvious way: it can become a brand asset.
Think about this. In football, there is a long tradition of turning hostility into motivation. Teams that are widely hated often build a strong collective identity based on opposition. They tell each other: the whole world is against us. And in some cases, that creates a cohesion no tactic could create.
If this happens with Argentina, the "most attacked team" label can be transformed into a story of resilience. From a victim of hostility, the team becomes a symbol of endurance. This is a transformation I have seen in football history, and it is not always bad. Sometimes it is the only way a collective can turn a loss into a resource.
I present this with low confidence, because it is speculation, not a fact. But I present it because it is a possibility worth considering. A dossier about hostility does not only record what hostility destroys. It also records what people can build from what is destroyed.
The fourth contrarian angle: the gap between volume and cause
Here I want to discuss a limitation of the SMPS dossier, and this limitation matters.
The dossier measures volume. It measures escalation. It measures distribution by team, by player, by geographic region. But it does not measure cause at the micro level. It does not tell us what percentage of hostility came from genuine fans, what percentage came from anonymous accounts, and what percentage came from automated or coordinated accounts.
This is an important gap. Because if a significant share of the 17.1 million posts came from automated or coordinated accounts, then we are not talking about a crowd phenomenon. We are talking about a phenomenon of a small group operating at industrial scale.
I have watched matches and social timelines for years, and I have one observation. In the most hostile moments, there is a suspicious pattern: posts appear in clusters, with identical language, at the same moment, from newly created accounts. That is not the sign of a spontaneous crowd. It is the sign of a campaign.
The SMPS dossier cannot attribute this difference. And I argue that is its biggest limitation. Because a coordinated campaign requires a different response than a spontaneous crowd. A coordinated campaign requires pattern detection, network identification, and account removal. A spontaneous crowd requires education, dialogue, and cultural change.
If we confuse these two, we will apply the wrong solution to the wrong problem. And in a dossier with a scale of 17.1 million posts, such a mistake could cost us years.
The fifth contrarian angle: immigration and identity — when football becomes a political stage
The SMPS dossier notes a factor I consider the most important for understanding the whole picture: part of the hostility was tied to arguments about immigration and national identity.
This is a finding with large implications. It means online hostility in football is not only a football problem. It is an expression of broader social tensions, projected onto a global sporting event.
Football, because it is the most popular sport in the world, because it gathers billions at once, because it sets nations against each other within a rule-bound framework, is a perfect stage for identity tensions. When a national team plays, it does not only represent a set of players. It represents an idea of a country. And when that idea is placed next to another, identity tensions can surface.
Here is a point I want to state clearly, because it is easily misread. I am not saying football causes these tensions. I am saying football exposes them. The tensions existed before the tournament. The tournament merely provided a framework for them to become visible, and in some cases, more intense.
The implication is: if we want to address hostility in football, we cannot address it only with football's tools. We need the tools of sociology, psychology, law, and politics. Football is where the problem appears. Football is not where the problem can be solved alone.
Risk analysis: two severe risk clusters
From the SMPS dossier, I can draw an overall risk assessment at a medium-to-high level. This level is driven by two severe risk clusters.
The first risk cluster is referee doxxing. This is the most severe cluster, because it carries physical-safety and legal consequences beyond sport. When a referee's private information is made public, the threat is no longer a line of text on a screen. It becomes a possibility that can occur in the real world. And responsibility for this does not belong to football alone.
The second risk cluster is racism and xenophobia targeting players of African origin. This is the most pervasive cluster, because it has large volume and is geographically concentrated in Europe. It is a systemic risk, not an isolated incident. It does not disappear after the tournament. It waits for the next one.
Beyond these two clusters, there is a third risk at medium level: speculation about fraud and match-fixing. This risk matters because it connects online hostility to the legal frameworks of sporting integrity and anti-betting fraud. It shows that the hostility problem does not exist in a vacuum. It intersects with other systems.
What I want to stress is that there is no financial risk in this dossier. The dossier contains no content on club finance, transfers, or wages. This is a governance and ethics dossier, and it should be read as such. Imposing a financial-analysis framework on it would be a methodological error.
Industry transmission: SMPS as a new service line
Here I want to discuss an implication that gets little attention but matters: SMPS could become a model for a new service line in the football industry.
Think about what FIFA did. It built a system capable of collecting and classifying 17.1 million posts across four platforms in 42 days. That is a technical capability, a data capability, and an organizational capability. And such a capability is not only useful for international tournaments.
Continental confederations need it. National leagues need it. Big clubs need it. Any organization whose players or officials are exposed to the public needs a way to measure and manage online hostility. And if FIFA has proven this can be done, a service market will form around it.
This is one of the ways a crisis creates an industry. A new problem appears, a pioneering organization builds a solution, and that solution becomes a service that can be sold, scaled, and improved. I am not saying this to justify the commercialization of a problem. I am saying it to point out that solutions to online hostility will come from a market, not only from goodwill.
There is a dark side to this that I want to raise. If protection against hostility becomes a paid service, then organizations with money will be protected, and organizations without money will not. A player in a small league will be less protected than a player in a big league. This is a new inequality, and it deserves to be tracked.
My view on data and the market
I hold a view I have kept for years, and I want to present it naturally through this dossier.
Live data supplied to betting companies is one of the darkest side effects of the digitalization of sport. When every pass, every shot, every refereeing decision is recorded and transmitted in real time, that data does not only serve analysis. It serves betting. And when betting becomes instant, hostility becomes instant too.
I have no direct evidence linking the match-fixing speculation in the SMPS dossier to betting markets. But I have an observation from my experience watching matches: attacks on referees often rise immediately after decisions that affect the outcome of high-stakes matches. This is a correlation, not a causation. But it is worth tracking.
My view is this: when we digitize a sport, we do not only create more data. We create more ways for that data to be used for purposes the sport does not control. Betting is one of those purposes. And hostility toward referees, in some cases, may be an expression of the frustration of those who bet and lost.
I present this with low-to-medium confidence. But I present it because it is a testable hypothesis, and a dossier about hostility should open hypotheses, not only record facts.
On the transfer market, I also hold a view. The transfer race among giants is a brand arms race. The truly valuable deals are usually at small clubs, where a player is bought cheaply and developed into a major asset. In the SMPS dossier, I see a similar pattern. Hostile attention concentrates on the giants, on the biggest brands. But the real damage may lie in less visible places — players in small leagues, referees in small countries, people with no protection system behind them.
The press room and the data dossier
I want to return to a personal memory, because it relates directly to how I read this dossier.
In 2026, when I first walked into a press room as an analysis assistant, a veteran reporter asked me whether I really understood the coach's pressing system or had just come to decorate. I did not answer on the spot. I went home, wrote a 14-page analysis of how the team lost control on the left flank, and sent it to the coaching staff. Over the next three matches, the lineup was adjusted.
The press room is not for the timid; it is for those with data. That is the lesson I drew from that night. And it is the lesson I apply to this SMPS dossier. When someone says Argentina is hated because they were favored, the answer is not an emotional rebuttal. The answer is an inventory: 17.1 million posts, four platforms, 42 days, a classification system, and a set of verifiable facts.
I have learned that in an argument, the person with data does not always win. But the person with data has one advantage: they can prove themselves wrong. And the ability to prove yourself wrong is the foundation of any credible analysis.
I was wrong in 2026, when I forgot temperature. I publicly admitted it. And precisely because I publicly admitted it, I can ask others to do the same. If you spread a favoritism accusation without evidence, you can admit it. If you joined a wave of hostility without checking the facts, you can withdraw. The ability to withdraw is part of honesty, not a sign of weakness.
What is genuinely new in this dossier
I want to spend a section asking myself: what in this dossier is genuinely new, and what is merely a new version of an old problem?
Hostility in football is not new. Racism in football is not new. Referee-favoritism accusations are not new. These have existed since football became a popular sport.
What is new is the scale and the measurability. Before, we knew hostility existed, but we could not measure it. We had anecdotes, stories, accounts. Now we have 17.1 million classified posts. This is a change in kind, not only in degree.
When you can measure a problem, you can manage it. And when you can manage it, you can be held accountable for it. This is what is new: the possibility of accountability. Before, no one had to be responsible for online hostility, because no one could prove its scale. Now, an organization has proven its scale. And that proof creates an obligation.
The second new thing is the connection between domains. The dossier links hostility to referees, to betting, to identity politics, to data law. Before, these domains were handled separately. Now, they are seen as a network.
And the third new thing is the emergence of an infrastructure. SMPS is an infrastructure. It is not a communications campaign, not a statement. It is an operating system. And operating systems, once built, tend to be expanded.
What happens next
I want to offer a few predictions, with a clear confidence level for each.
First prediction, with high confidence: continental confederations and major national leagues will adopt monitoring models similar to SMPS. This is a law of organizations: when the highest-level organization sets a standard, lower-level organizations follow, either because they believe in it or because they fear being judged as behind.
Second prediction, with medium confidence: pressure will grow on social platforms to accept new obligations, including identity verification and transparency reporting. This pressure will come from sports administrators, governments, and civil-society organizations. But it will meet resistance, because new obligations have costs, and platforms have their own interests.
Third prediction, with medium confidence: the online-hostility story will become a permanent part of every major tournament. Every World Cup, every Euro, every Copa America will come with a report on hostility. This is a worrying normalization, but it is a necessary one for the problem to be addressed.
Fourth prediction, with low confidence: there will be a serious incident involving the safety of a referee or a player, stemming from doxxing, and that incident will become a regulatory turning point. This is a prediction I hope I am wrong about. But based on the pattern of past safety problems, it is a possibility.
What I want you to carry
I have written this analysis the way I write every analysis: starting from the mechanism, moving through the data, and ending with a question. But this time, the question is not a tactical one. It is a question about responsibility.
When you read about 17.1 million posts, you may feel overwhelmed by the number. But the number is not the problem. The problem is that each of those 17.1 million posts is an act by a human being. A person sat down, opened a device, and decided to write something aimed at another person. The number is the sum of decisions. And decisions can change.
I do not believe we can entirely eliminate hostility from football. Hostility is part of any activity that gathers billions of people with strong emotions. But I believe we can transform it from an unmeasured phenomenon into a measured one, from a measured phenomenon into a managed one, and from a managed phenomenon into a mitigated one.
That process begins with a simple act: refusing to read data wrongly. When you see an accusation, ask whether it has evidence. When you see a wave, ask where it came from. When you see a number, ask what it measures, and what it does not.
Data does not lie, but the people who read data do. And in a world where everyone can become a reader of data, the ability to read correctly becomes a responsibility, not just a skill.
The next match will come. There will be a winner and a loser. There will be controversial decisions and accusations. And there will be a new wave of hostility, on a new platform, with a new number. The question for next time is not whether that wave will come. The question is whether we have prepared for it.
Before asking why we lost, ask what we prepared for. And this time, the answer can be measured, verified, and written down — not in ink, but in what we learned from blood.
